PredictionsElectronics Industry - Qualcomm - SEMICON Europa
“Star Trek has been the predictor to the electronics of the future”, Mike Campbell, senior vp at Qualcomm CDMA Technologies told the SEMICON Europa 2011 Fab Managers Forum in Dresden this morning.
Campbell listed the technologies which the Star Trek cast was using back in the 60s: voice-activated computers, touch-screen controls, motion control, 3D displays, remote sensing, non-invasive diagnostics, real-time DNA analysis.
Flip phones, now the largest industry driver, tablet PCs and diagnostic beds were among nine products first seen on Star Trek.
Campbell had a prediction of his own: “Your first 3D camera will be a phone.” Apparently these are coming for Christmas.
“Semiconductor growth will be driven by ease of access to data,” said Campbell, but he thought that the semiconductor industry is “approaching a discontinuity” with fewer players able to compete in process technology.
In terms of capital spending, the top five players spend 40% of the total; the top ten spend 55% of the total; the top 15 spend 67% of the total, and the top 25 spend 82% of the total.
This is only getting worse with the soaring costs of EUV, double patterning and 450mm, and the increasing concentration of the volume growth driver applications in areas like mobile and automotive.
Mobile growth is enormous. 25% of the world’s population is on the Internet, said Campbell, 5bn mobile phones are in use, 1.5bn phones will be sold this year, 1.67bn next year,1.64bn in 2013 and 1.79bn in 2014. Smartphones are growing much quicker – Campbell expects 40% CAGR in smartphones between 2011 and 2014.
3G is “the biggest platform in the history of mankind” said Campbell, with 1bn 3G subscribers now, and 2.7bn 3G subscribers in 2014....RESOURCES
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